Underwhelming Madrid need special touch

Soccer Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jose Mourinho left Inter Milan this summer for the bright lights of the Bernabeu, he took a calculated risk. After all, Inter had just come off a season where they won both the domestic league and cup along with the most prestigious competition in all of domestic football, the Champions League.

Mourinho could have easily soaked up all the glory of being the only manager to win the Champions League with two different clubs and stay put with a team that should once again be among the elite in world football.

However, that's never been Mourinho's style. The self-professed "Special One" was hungry for a new challenge and the quest to erase the disappointment of a trophy-less season in Madrid last year was just that.

A spending spree in the summer of 2009 brought Real Madrid the likes of Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, but what it didn't bring was success.

Former coach Bernd Schuster was unable to tactically bring the cohesion the club needed and that resulted in humbling defeats throughout the season.

After the departure of Schuster, Mourinho's influence was felt almost immediately at Madrid.

Gone were long-time Madrid veterans Raul and Guti and in came young stalwarts Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira and Angel Di Maria.

Also making his way into the fold was stalwart defender Ricardo Carvalho, who won domestic championships under Mourinho at FC Porto and Chelsea.

While Madrid possess a roster filled with talent and potential, many of the newcomers failed to live up to the lofty expectations.

Karim Benezma found himself a spectator for much of the season after being usurped by Gonzalo Higuain at forward while Kaka never truly found his form, causing transfer rumors to surface about his possible departure.

One of the glaring weaknesses of the club is the lacking of a true instrumental midfielder capable of creating offensive opportunities.

With arch-rivals Barcelona boasting such players as Xavi and Iniesta, they have found success in breaking down even the toughest of defenses.

In acquiring Mesut Ozil from Werder Bremen, Mourinho hopes he's found a player that could bring the club's offensive game together and open up space for the likes of Di Maria and Ronaldo to work their magic on the wings.

A 0-0 draw against Mallorca to open the season was likely not the result Mourinho was hoping for, but it is indicative of where Real Madrid is at the current moment, a work in progress.

Now that Lassana Diarra and Ronaldo are down with injuries for the next few weeks, the new recruits will get the opportunity to prove they are indeed worthy of putting on the famed Madrid shirt.

The task for the "Special One" will be how to turn a star-studded group of individuals into that of a team. That indeed might have been the biggest factor in getting rid of the likes of Raul and Guti, who were seen to have their share of influence in the Madrid locker room.

Rafael Van Der Vaart became Mourinho's latest victim, having been sent packing to Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League on the final day of the summer transfer market.

Madrid is now indeed Mourinho's team. The brash and arrogant manager has never been one for failure and no one should expect any less from him at Madrid, no matter the bumps and bruises early on.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.