Banged-up Nuggets try to snap skid vs. Warriors

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02/09/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets are not making excuses that injuries are the main reason why they're mired in a season-high four-game losing streak.

"We have a lot of young talent and a lot of players with experience. We have a long bench and at this moment with the injuries, we have to find a way to play better and more aggressively," said Nuggets reserve guard Rudy Fernandez.

The Nuggets hope to right the ship tonight in the finale of a three-game homestand versus the Golden State Warriors at the Pepsi Center and have been dealing with a rash of injuries to leading scorer Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov and the absence of Corey Brewer, who is dealing with the death of his father. Gallinari is expected to miss about a month with an ankle injury and Mozgov is nursing the same kind of injury.

Denver did get a healthy Aaron Afflalo (ankle/toe) and Nene (heel) back in Wednesday's matchup with the defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks, but dropped a 105-95 decision. Al Harrington and Fernandez each scored 17 points, while Ty Lawson chipped in 16 points and 10 assists in the Nuggets' sixth loss in seven tries since a season-best six-game winning streak.

"I don't think we're playing bad basketball, I just don't think we're playing winning basketball," said Nuggets coach George Karl about his team's skid. "I think right now we're doing the [right] things probably 30-35 minutes a game."

Nene added 16 points and grabbed 10 boards, and Afflalo finished with 12 points. Andre Miller posted 11 in a losing effort. The Nuggets, who are 7-6 at home this season, will play four of five games on the road following tonight's test with the Warriors.

Warriors leading scorer Monta Ellis is averaging 33.0 points over his last three games and his career-high 48-point performance in Tuesday's 119-116 loss versus Oklahoma City wasn't enough to lift his team to victory. Ellis has averaged 19.4 points in 16 career games against Denver and hopes to improve that number Thursday night in the Rocky Mountains.

"It was just going in for me tonight," Ellis said after the loss. "Unfortunately we didn't get the win. Our effort was there, we played them hard the whole game and it just came down to one shot."

David Lee had a triple-double with 25 points 11 boards and 10 assists in the loss to the Thunder, while Stephen Curry recorded a double-double with 16 points and 10 assists for Golden State, which has lost two straight and six of its last nine contests. The Warriors shot 55 percent and still lost. Dorell Wright had just nine points, but is averaging 16.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.40 steals in his last five games.

Lee's second career triple-double was the first by a Warriors power forward since Chris Webber back in 1993. The Warriors look to build on their 2-6 road record this evening and have dropped two straight as the guest. They are 3-9 against the West this season and will have several chances to improve that record in a current stretch of 15 games in a row against the conference (3-4).

Warriors guard Nate Robinson (groin) is questionable against the Nuggets.

Golden State lost two of three meetings with Denver a year ago and has dropped 10 of the past 12 matchups between the teams. The Warriors haven't played so well lately in the Rockies either, losing six straight and 13 of 14 visits there. They haven't won a set with the Nuggets since a four-game sweep in 2002-03.

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Problem with Bears?

Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.

"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."

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Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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